A preview of this scenario for the year 2040 is provided in this blog. This trend is taken from the Future of Mobility Trend Report, a compilation of the 65 most influential mobility trends that will affect movement of people over the next 20 years. The research has been developed by Baloise in collaboration with the innovation firm Spark Works.
Anywhere, somewhere und X-where
The "anywhere, somewhere and X-where" trend deals with the social identities of the population, which will change with technological progress. The population is categorized into three identities:
In accordance with this identity, most of the population strata are well educated, with developed and mobile identities. These are, for example, educated employees who can perform their work remotely, outside the company and, thanks to the Internet, even worldwide. Thanks to social networks like LinkedIn, they are just as much in demand abroad as they are at home. That's why they can settle down anywhere and take their personal reputation with them wherever they go. Today, this is about 25% of the population, with the proportion increasing with digitalization and the supply of remote jobs offers.
Localised strata of the population who cannot easily live or work elsewhere. These are for example employees of supermarkets or amusement parks, pharmacists, public prosecutors, hairdressers and many more. Today they still make up about 50% of the population, but the proportion of this section of the population tends to decline.
The costs of mobility are decreasing and the virtual and real worlds are increasingly merging. It is no longer important where you live as long as you feel comfortable in your social environment. The 70s are celebrating their comeback and behaviour is similar to that one of hippies. To the contrary of the ‘Somewhere’ population, this class is extremely mobile and changes their place of residence and work according to their mood, phase of life, season or even job.
Never commute again – a life without commute
The consequences of this evolution for Baloise and the economy are numerous:
- The place of work becomes unimportant for large sections of the population.
- Commuting is no longer necessary.
- Home office or even co-office in a block of flats or with friends is becoming the new standard. Offices as they exist today are increasingly disappearing and being replaced by co-working spaces.
- Social centers and neighbourhoods within cities are emerging.
- Business trips are reduced to a minimum or disappeared completely.
- Everyday life increasingly takes place in and around one's own neighbourhood.
With this trend, numerous implications for the Baloise business model can be derived, which we are already taking into account in our ecosystems.
All social trends and the complete explanations can also be found on pages 33 – 52 of the Future of Mobility Trend Report.